After the fall of right-wing PM Michel Barnier to a no-confidence vote, Emmanuel Macron has appointed a new Prime Minister, François Bayrou, to attempt to apply the same policies. The Left Berlin spoke to Paris activist, John Mullen
Who is Francois Bayrou, France’s new prime minister? And is he any different to previous PM, Michel Barnier?
He is an old man, who has nothing to lose career-wise; this was an important qualification for the job. Well-known for having energetically defended public funding for private schools when he was Education Minister in a Conservative government 30 years ago, Bayrou is much closer to Macron than the previous PM was. Macron cannot seem to fathom the idea that he lost the parliamentary elections, and so has refused to name a Prime Minister from the left bloc (New Popular Front), even though it has more MPs than any other grouping.
The process by which Bayrou was chosen was both ridiculous and spectacular. Macron kept postponing his decision, and actually decided to appoint somebody else, only to be bullied by Bayrou (who threatened to join the opposition), into changing his mind.
Why did Barnier fall, and is Bayrou likely to fare any better?
Barnier’s minority government put forward a budget which included severe cuts in social services. At the same time, it involved a rise of three billion euros for the army (whose budget has already increased by over 40% since Macron came to office). He did not manage to get a parliamentary majority to approve it. The Left had always intended to propose a vote of no confidence. When Barnier pushed this budget through without a vote in Parliament, using an authoritarian clause of the French constitution (clause 49.3) the far right, given its base among the poorer population, was obliged to support the left no-confidence vote.
Macron and Bayrou want a new government, but with the same policies. Their supporters repeat on rolling news channels that compromise is needed, but Bayrou is not offering any concessions. He will not even promise to raise the minimum wage and abandon the incredibly unpopular rise in the standard retirement age which was pushed through last year. He has suggested long talks on the question of “adapting” the pension reform, but noone really believes him.
Bayrou had announced that one third of his ministers would be from the Right, one third from the Centre and one third from the Left. His aim was to smash the left bloc by winning over a dozen Socialist Party or Green personalities. He failed miserably.
His first move was to reassure fascist voters by reappointing hard right anti-immigration racist extremist, Bruno Retailleau, as Minister of the Interior. RN Member of Parliament Sébastien Chenu immediately declared himself very pleased Retailleau was staying. But for his so-called left ministers, Bayrou has had to be satisfied with second hand products: some figures who used to be left wing in their youth, but left the Socialist Party when bought by Emmanuel Macron, some years back.
The mass media here are declaring sagely “Bayrou has opted for a government of political heavyweights”. Two ex-Prime Ministers are in the cabinet: Elizabeth Borne, who pushed through attacks on pensions last year against a huge strike movement, and Manuel Valls, who lost the 2022 elections in his constituency and is no longer an MP. He famously wrote a book “To Put the Old Socialism to Rest, and Finally be Left Wing” and is widely considered to be for sale at reduced prices. Half of Bayrou’s ministers were already in Barnier’s cabinet, including such characters as Gérard Darmanin, whose habit of exchanging sexual favours for bureaucratic help has been confirmed by the publication of his SMS records!
No budget has been passed for 2025. What difference will that make?
A “special law” has been voted through this week which allows the parliament to extend the period of the 2024 budget for a couple of months, so that there is no danger of a US style government shutdown. But in February, Bayrou will be facing the same battle Barnier faced, and with no additional forces or weapons, it seems.
Al Jazeera reports an Elaba poll saying two thirds of people in France do not want another government to be overthrown. Does this correspond with your experience?
Opinion polls have their importance, but the exact question which is asked makes a big difference. An Ipsos poll on 9th November 2024 found that only 23% of people thought that Macron was doing a good job, and only 31% of people thought that Prime Minister Barnier was. In early December, another poll, by CSA, shows that 59% of people (and 74% of 18-24 year olds) want Macron to resign. 34% of those polled this week were glad that Bayrou had been appointed (IFOP poll), the lowest figure for a new PM since the 1950s.
Certainly, political instability frightens a lot of people, including many workers, but hatred of Macron and neoliberalism here is huge.
So far the French Socialist Party, the PS, has generally stuck with the left wing alliance the New Popular Front while simultaneously holding talks with Macron. What are the chances that the PS will be drawn into the new government?
Last September the national committee of the Socialist party voted by only 38 votes to 33 to support the NFP‘s candidate for Prime Minister. Now, the Socialist Party leadership has declared they will not join the government, but neither will they necessarily follow the FI in passing a no confidence motion. They appear to be looking for a compromise. They would have accepted a different Prime Minister, from the Socialist Party, and they have said that they are no longer insisting that the law raising the retirement age be abrogated, but that a freeze on its implementation might be sufficient. General Secretary, Olivier Faure declared last week “the hope is that a change in direction, however minimal it might be, would allow the French people to move forward”.
On this basis, Socialist Party leaders, along with the Greens and the Communists, joined extended talks with Macron and Bayrou. One of Bayrou’s closest allies praised the “sincere and responsible attitude” of Socialist Party leaders. The talks turned out, unsurprisingly, to be a farce. The France Insoumise, fortunately, refused the invitation to discuss who should be in the government. This brings considerable political clarification about who constitutes the real left opposition.
How has the current instability affected the French far-right party, the Rassemblement National (RN)?
The RN leadership is delighted at the key role handed to them by Macron. They publicly vetoed the appointment of right winger Xavier Bertrand as justice minister, and Bayrou offered Bertrand a more junior post (which to his credit Bertrand refused, not wanting to accept that the RN was calling the shots). But Marine Le Pen is having great difficulty walking a tightrope between helping Macron out (allowing Barnier to hold on for months, for example) and maintaining the RN’s base among the poorer populations, who hate Macron.
What is the effect on the radical left France Insoumise?
The FI has managed to show that it is different to the austerity-compatible sections of the PS, Greens and PCF. We are hoping this will help polarize when, as seems likely, there are elections later in 2025. The FI campaigns for Macron to be thrown out, the Left programme be respected, and for a change in the constitution.
Bayrou is President Emanuel Macron’s fourth prime minister this year. Can Macron survive?
It’s impossible to say. He is not in immediate danger – only the radical and revolutionary Left are calling for him to resign. But there are some signs that parts of the establishment are abandoning him. If the Bayrou government falls quickly, as seems likely, pressure will grow.
On the one hand, French capital is demanding violent austerity and no concessions; on the other, they want lawmaking and budgetary stability. For the moment they can’t have both. It is important to keep campaigning for Macron to respect the election results and appoint a Left government, but even more important to build grassroots resistance against this violent austerity. Macron may well choose a more authoritarian option when Bayrou falls, such as a government of unelected “experts in finance”. New parliamentary elections are not constitutionally permitted until July.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the France Insoumise, said the shenanigans around Bayrou’s appointment “had that sweet smell of History about them”. He is right – the deep crisis of the Macronite political era gives the opportunity for mass revolt and real change.
